The first thing my new patient did when she walked into my office was breath an enormous sigh of relief. “It was so hard to get this appointment with you,” she said. “It took weeks!”
Unfortunately, my patient is not alone in her struggles. It is increasingly difficult for patients to find doctors and to get appointments with primary care physicians like myself, and it is likely to get worse, not better, as millions more gain health insurance under the Affordable Care Act.
The medical field has long been fretting about an upcoming doctor shortage. The aging of baby boomers already worried medical planners before changes to health care took a front seat, especially because so many doctors themselves are boomers and they will be aging (and retiring) at the same time. Add in the trend of medical students choosing sub-specialties over primary care, and now finding a doctor and getting an appointment can rival finding a parking space in midtown Manhattan.
Of course, much of the doctor shortage has to do with mismatched allocation of doctors — both with regard to geography and to specialty. In places like Boston or New York, you can’t walk down some blocks without tripping over a dozen dermatologists. And in many urban areas, multispecialty practices that take up entire floors of office buildings and freestanding M.R.I. facilities are nearly as common as Starbucks.
But for vast swathes of rural and small-town America and in poorer urban neighborhoods, many kinds of doctors can be hard to come by. Primary care is difficult to access, and specialty care requires complex, lengthy and expensive arrangements. Six states do not have their own medical schools — and the university hospitals and faculty practices that come with them. The worsening shortfall of doctors in years ahead will affect these communities disproportionately.
A recent special issue of Academic Medicine is devoted entirely to the challenge of matching the physician workforce to the needs of the patient population. The estimates of doctor shortages in the next 15 years range from 50,000 to more than 150,000. Whichever number turns out to be true, there will be legions of patients whose health will suffer.
What are some of the ways this crisis is being approached? The first is to increase the number of doctors. Since 2000, a dozen new allopathic medical schools have opened, along with more than a dozen osteopathic medical schools. These should supply a steady new crop of medical graduates.
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